Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?
Current price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$9.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 PA-07 congressional race based on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official backup from the Federal Election Commission if reports conflict. The rules explicitly define party affiliation mechanics, including how candidates without a standard major-party ballot listing are attributed based on expressed caucusing intent at the time all House races are called. While relying on reporting consensus involves some decider judgment initially, the presence of an official government fallback and clear party attribution rules keeps surprise risk minimal.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans if unaffiliated on the ballot. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or expresses intent to caucus with another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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