Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Current price
38.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38.5%
$21.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the PA-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify a primary resolution path based on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. Party affiliation handling is explicitly defined for third-party or independent candidates based on ballot listing or intent to caucus, leaving very little room for unexpected resolution outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district (PA-01) U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party affiliation on the ballot are classified based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. The market resolves No if a non-Democratic candidate wins the seat. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) serving as the official fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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