Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Current price
62.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 62.5%
$18.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the winning party is determined for the 2026 PA-01 House election, including explicit provisions for independents or non-major party candidates based on ballot affiliation or caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting, which involves some discretion in determining when calls are conclusive, but it includes a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission in ambiguous cases.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with or intending to caucus with the Republican Party wins the PA-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. A candidate's party is determined by ballot affiliation or, if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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