Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?
Last captured price
94.45¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 94.45%
$31.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard US midterm election outcomes for Ohio's 1st Congressional District in 2026. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent or third-party candidates via stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if reporting is ambiguous or disputed. Certification and conclusive calling of all House seats may take several days to weeks after election day, but the resolution pathway is straightforward and standard for congressional election markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Ohio 1st Congressional District U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-01 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on ballot listing or caucus intent when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a non-Democratic candidate wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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