Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?
Current price
4.3¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.3%
$22.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the winner of Ohio's 1st Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms, including clear guidance for non-major party candidates based on their stated caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as a direct fallback if ambiguity arises. Timing aligns with the calling of all 2026 House elections.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the OH-01 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the OH-01 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party by ballot listing or expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House races are called. It resolves to No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. Party affiliation for candidates not listed as Democrat or Republican depends on their most recently expressed intent to caucus at the time all House races are conclusively called. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the election takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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