Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Current price
40.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.5%
$35.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market clearly specifies that it resolves based on which party wins the NY-17 House seat in the November 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including explicit provisions for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus at the time all House elections are called. Overall, the mechanics align directly with standard election outcomes, leaving minimal room for unexpected resolutions.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 17th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NY-17 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. It resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are called, or by the party the candidate most recently expressed intent to caucus with if unlisted. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.