Will the Democratic Party win the NY-03 House seat?
Current price
90¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 90%
$21.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for New York's 3rd Congressional District. The criteria clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including clear fallback provisions for third-party or independent candidates based on their stated caucusing intentions. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission records if results remain ambiguous. Timing aligns standardly with the post-election certification process across House races, leaving minimal room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are evaluated based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-03 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed caucus intent at the time all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate represents a different party. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the fallback source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Midterm election day: — Date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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