Will the Republican Party win the NY-03 House seat?
Current price
10.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$27K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market clearly specifies that resolution hinges on which party wins New York's 3rd congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting across news outlets, with official Federal Election Commission records serving as a binding fallback if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. The rules also provide explicit criteria for attributing independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. While final election certification or official FEC reporting can take weeks or months following election day, the resolution path and party definitions are standard and straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if no ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is listed. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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