Will the Democratic Party win the NM-02 House seat?
Current price
91.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 91.85%
$39.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the winning conditions for the NM-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on an unlisted consensus of credible reporting, which leaves discretion to the decider to determine when calls are conclusive, though it specifies the Federal Election Commission as an official fallback in the event of ambiguity. It also explicitly clarifies how independent or unaffiliated candidates are attributed to major parties based on their stated intent to caucus.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with or caucusing with the Democratic Party wins the election for the U.S. House of Representatives seat in New Mexico's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NM-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Republican Party or otherwise does not qualify under the Democratic criteria. Outcome decisions rely on a consensus of credible reporting. If reporting is ambiguous, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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