Will the Republican Party win the NM-02 House seat?
Current price
7.7¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.7%
$34.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes a win for the specified party in the 2026 NM-02 congressional race, including explicit guidelines for determining party affiliation if an independent candidate runs and wins by looking at their declared caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting once all House races are called, with a definitive fallback to official results certified by the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While consensus reporting involves some judgment, the official government fallback limits decider discretion and provides a clear final authority.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the NM-02 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. Affiliation is based on ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. A consensus of credible reporting decides the winner, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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