Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?
Current price
97.45¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.45%
$40.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as a clear fallback if reporting is ambiguous. Rules explicitly detail how non-major party affiliations or independent candidates are assigned to a major party based on their stated caucus intent when all House races are called. Timing aligns straightforwardly with election certification and race calls, leaving little room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the New Hampshire 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the NH-02 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined by their ballot listing or their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House elections are called. The market resolves to No if the winning candidate belongs to another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — Midterm elections take place
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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