Will the Republican Party win the NH-02 House seat?
Last captured price
2.6¢
−0.3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.6%
$11.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Resolution depends on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District. The decider will rely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official agency as the primary decider, with the Federal Election Commission serving only as a fallback if the result is ambiguous. The rules explicitly define party affiliation mechanics, including evaluating caucus intent for independent or unaffiliated candidates. While election outcomes can take days or weeks to be fully tallied, the resolution criteria are standard and align directly with typical election race tracking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the NH-02 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. Party affiliation is determined by the candidate's ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed caucus intent when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the deciding source if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election day: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.