Will the Democratic Party win the NH-01 House seat?
Current price
96.4¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.4%
$36.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules clearly address candidates who run as independents or third-party contenders by specifying that party affiliation will be determined by caucus intent at the time all House races are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if media consensus is unclear or disputed. Resolution may take time following election day while final calls and caucus intentions are established across all House races, but the criteria and fallback authority are well defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NH-01 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing or by expressing intent to caucus with Democrats if not listed as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a non-Democratic candidate wins. Party affiliation is determined at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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