Will the Republican Party win the NH-01 House seat?
Current price
3.35¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.35%
$15.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market asks a straightforward question about the winner of the 2026 NH-01 U.S. House race and sets clear fallback criteria for third-party or independent candidates based on caucus intent. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for judgment about what constitutes a consensus, but the rules include a named official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. The mechanics are standard for election outcomes with minimal risk of an unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New Hampshire's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate who wins the NH-01 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with if they lack a ballot affiliation. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- election_day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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