Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat?
Current price
95¢
Implied probability 95%
$8.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the winning candidate's party affiliation for Nevada's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some judgement in deciding when a consensus exists, though official FEC results serve as a formal backstop if ambiguity arises. Timing depends on when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, which could delay final determination in close or contested races across the country. Specific caucus-intent rules are provided for independent or third-party winners to assign them to a major party.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Nevada's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified based on their stated caucusing intentions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Democratic Party wins the NV-03 seat. The market resolves to No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate lacking a ballot affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties is treated as a member of the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results reported by the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
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