Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat?
Current price
5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5%
$3.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the winner of Nevada's 3rd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm election. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if reporting remains ambiguous. The rules account for third-party or independent candidates by resolving according to their stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are called. Timing risk is moderate because House race calls and formal election certifications can take weeks, but the resolution criteria align closely with the natural reading of the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins Nevada's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections. If a candidate is not ballot-listed with a major party, their affiliation depends on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NV-03 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm election is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm election date: — Date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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