Will the Democratic Party win the NV-01 House seat?
Current price
95.9¢
+0.75¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.9%
$18.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the specific race and the conditions for determining party affiliation, including fallback criteria for independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a definitive backup to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. While relying on reporting consensus involves some discretion before official certification, the clear fallback to official election results keeps the overall mechanics predictable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the NV-01 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the NV-01 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party (such as the Republican Party) or intending to caucus with another party wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) serving as the deciding source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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