Will the Republican Party win the NV-01 House seat?
Current price
3.85¢
Implied probability 3.85%
$16.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party affiliation of the candidate winning Nevada's 1st Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify that determination relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving room for judgment about when a consensus is reached, with official Federal Election Commission certified results serving as the fallback if ambiguity arises. The market also specifies clear rules for handling independent or third-party candidates by looking at their expressed intent to caucus when all House races are finalized. Standard election certification timelines apply, but the mechanics directly track the expected electoral outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins Nevada's 1st congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NV-01 House seat is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a ballot affiliation for Democrats or Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback official source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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