Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?
Current price
96.7¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 96.7%
$35.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party of the candidate winning Missouri's 5th congressional district in the 2026 House elections. The primary resolution mechanism relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if results are ambiguous. Rules clearly define how a candidate's party is determined, including how to handle independent candidates based on their expressed intent to caucus at the time all House elections are conclusively called. While using a consensus of reporting introduces minor latitude before official certification, the objective nature of congressional election outcomes and the presence of an official government fallback keep overall uncertainty low.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Missouri's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MO-05 seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party, either by ballot listing or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Republican Party, or otherwise does not meet the Democratic criteria. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in case of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Date the election takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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