Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?
Current price
2.6¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.6%
$44.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on standard terms for a US House race in the 2026 midterms. Resolution initially relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit official fallback to certified results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how candidate party affiliations are established, including how to handle independent candidates via their stated caucusing intentions once all House races are called. Timing is tied to standard election certification cycles, presenting minimal risk of unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Missouri's 5th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the MO-05 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either via ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another non-Republican party under the same caucus and affiliation standards. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the market resolves solely based on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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