Will the Democratic Party win the MN-02 House seat?
Current price
95¢
−0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95%
$32.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on standard parameters for the 2026 congressional election in Minnesota's 2nd District. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certification serving as a clear fallback if results are contested or ambiguous. Rules also explicitly define party attribution mechanics for independent or non-major-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated intent to caucus, minimizing ambiguity regarding third-party winners.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Minnesota's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot affiliation are assigned a party based on their declared intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MN-02 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or most recently expressed intent to caucus when all House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the final decider if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.