Will the Republican Party win the MN-02 House seat?
Current price
4.15¢
+0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.15%
$31.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the winning candidate in Minnesota's 2nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. Initial resolution relies on establishing a consensus across credible news reporting, though the rules provide a formal fallback to certified results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Party affiliation is primarily assessed from the candidate's ballot listing, but if an independent or third-party candidate wins, the rules specify that resolution will look to their stated intention to caucus at the time all House races nationwide are decided. Because official federal certification can take months after election day, resolution could take extended time if media consensus is contested.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Minnesota's 2nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MN-02 congressional seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with any other party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called; candidates without a ballot affiliation to either major party are classified by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official results from the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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