Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?
Current price
64.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 64.5%
$5.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the conditions for resolving the winner of the MI-10 congressional race in the 2026 midterms. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a designated fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Rules also clearly handle third-party or independent candidates by looking at expressed caucus intent at the time House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Michigan's 10th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with the party if unaffiliated on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. The outcome is decided based on a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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