Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?
Current price
34.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 34.5%
$3.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Michigan's 10th congressional district. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is handled, including explicit guidance for independent or third-party candidates based on ballot listing or stated caucusing intent when all House races are called. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises. The mechanics are standard for election markets with minimal surprise potential.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Michigan's 10th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MI-10 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, determined by ballot listing or expressed caucus intent when all House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on official results reported by the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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