Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?
Current price
63¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 63%
$26.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Michigan's 7th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a fallback in the event of ambiguity. The rules explicitly account for candidates without a standard major-party ballot listing by checking their stated caucus intent once all House races are called. While relying on a reporting consensus gives the decider judgement rather than binding them strictly to official certification from the start, congressional election outcomes in single districts are generally unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins Michigan's 7th Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MI-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Candidates without a ballot affiliation count as Democrats if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party, wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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