Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?
Current price
35.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35.5%
$12K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the party affiliation of the candidate winning Michigan's 7th Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, which gives the decider some latitude in determining when races are conclusively called, but includes a formal fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including specific fallback criteria based on stated caucusing intent for third-party or independent candidates. Resolution timing is tied to the conclusion of all House race calls nationwide rather than an immediate fixed date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Michigan's 7th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the MI-07 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation, or, if not listed under either major party, by their most recently expressed intent to caucus when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if there is ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date on which the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback for ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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