Will the Democratic Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Current price
49¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 49%
$5.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly identifies the specific race, election date, and outcome criteria. Initial resolution relies on judging a consensus of credible reporting across news outlets, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if reporting is ambiguous. Resolution may take some time after election day because party affiliation checks and final determinations are tied to when all House elections nationwide are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins Michigan's 4th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the MI-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing or expressed intent to caucus. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Republican Party. Outcome determination relies on a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If reporting is ambiguous, the Federal Election Commission serves as the official deciding source.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback authority.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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