Will the Republican Party win the MI-04 House seat?
Current price
50¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 50%
$10.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Michigan's 4th congressional district. The rules clearly define how party affiliation is determined, including how to handle independent candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified data if ambiguity arises. The timing aligns with the standard conclusion of election calls, leaving little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the Michigan's 4th congressional district (MI-04) seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the MI-04 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation or, if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if another party's candidate wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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