Will the Republican Party win the MI-03 House seat?
Last captured price
3.95¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.95%
$16.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly tracks which party wins the Michigan 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single designated outlet, though it specifies official Federal Election Commission certified results as a definitive fallback in case of ambiguity. Explicit guidelines govern how non-major-party candidates are categorized based on their declared caucusing intent at the time all national House races are settled, leaving little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Michigan's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for Michigan's 3rd congressional district is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing or based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed on the ballot. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. The outcome will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting once all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. If ambiguity exists, resolution will be based solely on official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date the midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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