Will the Democratic Party win the CT-05 House seat?
Current price
95.85¢
+0.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 95.85%
$7.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly identifies the specific congressional district and the 2026 midterm election. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves room for judgment about when media calls are sufficient, though it specifies official Federal Election Commission certification as a fallback if ambiguity arises. The rules clearly handle potential non-major-party candidates by evaluating their ballot listing or stated intent to caucus as of the time all House races are decided.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the CT-05 U.S. House of Representatives seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties are classified by their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate in Connecticut's 5th congressional district is affiliated with the Democratic Party, determined either by their ballot listing or their most recently stated intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or intends to caucus with the Republican Party or another party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, falling back to official results from the Federal Election Commission if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The election for the CT-05 House seat takes place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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