Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Last captured price
42¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 42%
$1.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the snapshot timing as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and sets a clear long-term expiration date of December 31, 2026, resolving to No if no token launches. However, the price resolution relies on 'the most liquid price source available' rather than specifying a single exchange, on-chain oracle, or aggregator like CoinGecko. If trading occurs across multiple decentralized and centralized venues with differing prices, or if there is disagreement over the canonical total token supply, the decider will have latitude in selecting which venue represents the most liquid source. Participants should be aware of this potential discrepancy if the valuation hovers near the $300M mark at the designated snapshot time.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token exceeds $300 million one day after its official launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than $300M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. Fully Diluted Valuation is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price, and the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to qualify as launched. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $300M at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — The market resolves to No if no token has launched by this time.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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