Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Current price
0.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.05%
$74.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly list all 22 qualifying mayoral and magistrate jurisdictions and define what constitutes an official party candidate. Resolution can occur early if mathematical certainty is reached before all official counts finish. If two or more parties tie for the highest number of wins, resolution does not split or void, but instead defaults to the party whose English name comes first alphabetically. Outcomes rely on reported consensus with the Central Election Commission database serving as the decisive official source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) wins the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections in Taiwan's 2026 local elections across specified cities and counties. Ties are broken alphabetically by party English name.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) has the highest number of officially nominated and registered candidates win head of local government elections across the 22 specified cities, special municipalities, and counties, including via an alphabetical tiebreaker if tied for first place. Independent candidates do not count. The market resolves to No if another party wins the most elections or wins the tiebreaker. The market resolves to Other if no results of the relevant elections are known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If only some results are known by that cutoff, the winning party is determined using available results. A party wins as soon as it is mathematically impossible to equal or surpass its wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved by official results from the Taiwanese government (Central Election Commission).
Key dates
- Election date: — Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Results cutoff at 11:59 PM ET to determine the winner from available results, or resolve to Other if none exist.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguity resolved by the Central Election Commission
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