Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
Current price
37.25¢
+8.25¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.25%
$115K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules precisely define which 22 mayoral and magistrate elections count, require candidates to be officially nominated and registered with party affiliation, and rely on official Central Election Commission results if reporting varies. However, there are unusual tie-breaking and early resolution mechanics: if two or more parties tie for the most seats, the market resolves in favor of whichever party comes first alphabetically in English. The market can also resolve early once a mathematical lock is achieved, and if some election results remain unresolved by June 30, 2027, the outcome will be decided using only the seats determined by that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections across specified Taiwanese cities, municipalities, and counties in the 2026 local elections. Notably, ties are broken alphabetically by the party's English name.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if official candidates nominated and registered by the DPP win the greatest number of the 22 specified mayoral and magistrate elections, or win an alphabetical tiebreaker if tied for the most wins. Independent candidates do not count. The market resolves to No if another party wins the most seats (or wins the alphabetical tiebreaker). The market resolves to Other if none of the election results are known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If only some results are known by that cutoff, the winner is determined from available results. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) of the Taiwanese government if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election date: — Date of the 2026 Taiwanese local elections.
- Fallback cutoff date: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET to determine results from available data or resolve to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Taiwan if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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