Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch?
Last captured price
1.7¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$95.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the calculation formula and define the timing checkpoint as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following public tradability. However, the resolution source is broadly specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a dedicated tracker or primary exchange. Discrepancies between decentralized liquidity pools and centralized exchanges at the exact snapshot timestamp could create disagreement on the definitive price and fully diluted valuation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Extended's token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation above $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it launches. Launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) of Extended's token is greater than $3 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as launched. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $3 billion at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Latest time Extended can launch a token before the market resolves to No
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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