Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Current price
4.5¢
+0.95¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$114.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the timing checkpoint as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the launch, but they do not name a specific data provider, exchange, or market aggregator to measure price and total supply. Instead, the decider must determine what counts as the most liquid price source available at that exact snapshot. Because different decentralized and centralized venues can display disparate token prices and calculate total versus fully diluted supply differently, this introduces discretion into the final valuation check if the pricing sits near the $2B threshold.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token exceeds $2 billion one day after its launch, with a specific definition for what constitutes a launch and the measurement time.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token is greater than $2 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered launched. The FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $2 billion at the specified time. The market also resolves No if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The most liquid price source available will be used to determine the token price.
Key dates
- Market close date: — If Extended does not launch a token by this date, the market resolves No.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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