Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Current price
18.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18.5%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly establish the evaluation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, along with a firm expiration cutoff of December 31, 2026. However, the price resolution relies on the most liquid price source available without naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or metric for measuring liquidity. Additionally, the rules do not specify the exact source or explorer used to verify the total token supply for the calculation. If the valuation ends up close to the $500M threshold, discrepancies between different decentralized or centralized trading venues could introduce resolution uncertainty.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Extended's token achieves a fully diluted valuation exceeding $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Extended's token is greater than $500 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is at or below $500 million at that time, or if Extended does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launches by this time.
Resolution source
Most liquid price source available
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