Ostium FDV above $4B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the valuation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch, with a definitive longstop date of December 31, 2026.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the valuation timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch, with a definitive longstop date of December 31, 2026. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. This leaves discretion to the resolver to determine which venue had the deepest liquidity and what constitutes the official total token supply at the snapshot time, which can vary across trackers and decentralized pools.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Ostium's token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) greater than $4 billion exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ostium's token Fully Diluted Valuation is greater than $4B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $4B at that time, or if Ostium does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·