Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide a specific snapshot time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) and a clear mathematical definition of FDV based on total supply multiplied by price.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide a specific snapshot time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) and a clear mathematical definition of FDV based on total supply multiplied by price. However, the resolution source is vaguely specified as 'the most liquid price source available' without naming a specific exchange, aggregator (such as CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap), or DEX pool, leaving room for disagreement if different venues report disparate prices or liquidity metrics at the checkpoint. A clear fallback date of December 31, 2026 resolves the market to No if no token launches.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance▲ +0.6 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Ostium's token achieves a fully diluted valuation above $100M exactly one day after its launch. The valuation is evaluated at a specific fixed time (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch) rather than across a rolling 24-hour window.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ostium's token fully diluted valuation (FDV) is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $100M at that specified time. The market also resolves to No if Ostium does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The deciding source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·