Ostium FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The timing condition is precisely defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the start of active public trading, alongside a clear longstop cutoff on December 31, 2026 resolving to No.
Read the full assessment
The timing condition is precisely defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the start of active public trading, alongside a clear longstop cutoff on December 31, 2026 resolving to No. However, the rule identifies the resolution source only as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific price aggregator or primary exchange, and it does not define where the total token supply figure must be sourced. If the fully diluted valuation sits close to the two billion dollar mark at the measurement cutoff, differing price feeds or liquidity assessments across venues could introduce dispute over which source determines the final outcome.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Ostium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Ostium doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether Ostium's token achieves a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after it launches. Launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the FDV of Ostium's token is greater than $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV does not exceed $2B at that time. The market also resolves to No if Ostium does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Token launch requires the token to be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·