Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
9.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$6.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules are precise and leave little room for subjective interpretation. Resolution is pegged strictly to Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle Low prices across an exact time window specified in the Eastern Time zone. The market resolves to Yes immediately if any eligible 1-minute candle registers a Low price at or below $55,000, and defaults to No after the final deadline if the threshold is not reached. Data from other exchanges or trading pairs is explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches $55,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair.
How it resolves
The market will immediately resolve to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between November 24, 2025, at 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET has a final Low price of $55,000 or lower. Otherwise, the market will resolve to No. Prices from other exchanges, other trading pairs, or different spot markets are excluded from consideration. The deciding source is Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle chart data.
Key dates
- Observation period starts: — Start of the window for monitoring 1-minute candle Low prices in ET.
- Observation period ends: — End of the observation window in ET.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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