Will the Republicans win Arkansas in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market features clear, structured criteria for determining the winner based on statewide plurality vote share.
Read the full assessment
This market features clear, structured criteria for determining the winner based on statewide plurality vote share. Resolution relies on concurrent race calls from three designated major media outlets (AP, Fox News, and NBC), with a precise fallback to the state government's official certified results if the outlets fail to reach a consensus. Rules explicitly account for nominee replacements, independent or third-party candidates, and multi-round voting mechanisms, with an extended longstop deadline of December 31, 2029 resolving to Other if determination remains impossible.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
92%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Arkansas in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Arkansas results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's presidential nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Arkansas in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Arkansas in the 2028 presidential election, regardless of the subsequent electoral college vote distribution. The market resolves to No if another party's candidate or an independent candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these sources do not reach consensus or fail to make calls, the certified election results reported by the state government will decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified statewide results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·