Will the Republicans win California in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the candidate who wins the most valid statewide votes in California for the 2028 presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on the candidate who wins the most valid statewide votes in California for the 2028 presidential election. Explicit resolution sources and triggers are outlined: the market resolves as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently call the race for the same candidate. If those three outlets fail to reach a unanimous call or stop making calls, the fallback is the official certified election results from the California state government. A broad backstop deadline of December 31, 2029, resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined. Replacement of nominees prior to election day is straightforwardly handled by tracking the official party nominee.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
6%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in California in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide California results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party's presidential nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in California in the 2028 Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in California in the 2028 presidential election, determined by final round counts if a multi-round system is used and regardless of electoral college vote distribution. It resolves No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. It resolves to Other if statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate; if they do not reach consensus or fail to make calls, the certified results from the state government decide.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified statewide results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·