2028 Presidential Election: California Winner
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Democratic Party at 95% · first close Nov 8, 2028 · $232.2 total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2028 US Presidential Election in California, measuring which political party's presidential candidate will win the most statewide votes in the state.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains one market per political party. Because resolution is based on which candidate wins the most valid statewide votes in California, at most one party market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if its specified party's nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in California in the 2028 presidential election, regardless of electoral college vote distribution. If ranked-choice voting or multi-round systems apply, final round counts are used. Resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If they lack consensus, certified state results decide. If results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution goes to Other.
Key dates
- Expected Election Day: — Date the 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place.
- Resolution determination deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET after which the market resolves to Other if results are not definitively determined.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results reported by the California state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 95% | — | Low | Med | |
| Republican Party | 6% | — | Low | Med |