Will the Republicans win Hawaii in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the popular vote winner in Hawaii for the 2028 presidential race.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify how the outcome is determined based on the popular vote winner in Hawaii for the 2028 presidential race. Resolution relies on a consensus call among three major named news networks (Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC), with official state-certified election results serving as a clear fallback if the outlets disagree or do not call the race. Clear provisions cover candidate replacements, potential multi-round voting systems, and a definitive long-stop date of December 31, 2029.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
9%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Hawaii in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Hawaii results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Hawaii in the 2028 presidential election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Hawaii in the 2028 US presidential election. It resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. It resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. If multi-round voting is used, the vote count from the final round applies regardless of electoral college vote distribution. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If those organizations do not reach consensus, certified state results decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified statewide results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·