Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium3 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market sets out detailed criteria for what constitutes a qualifying energy ceasefire, including specific examples and scope requirements, but resolution ultimately relies on either joint official announcements or a consensus of credible reporting.
Read the full assessment
This market sets out detailed criteria for what constitutes a qualifying energy ceasefire, including specific examples and scope requirements, but resolution ultimately relies on either joint official announcements or a consensus of credible reporting. Because geopolitical agreements during an active conflict can be opaque, disputed, or partial, relying on reporting consensus introduces significant decider latitude in evaluating whether an informal or third-party-brokered deal meets the mutual commitment threshold. Key carve-outs to note include the exclusion of single-facility arrangements (such as solely covering Zaporizhzhia), unilateral pauses, and mere commitments to future negotiations, though any broader general truce that halts strikes entirely will trigger a positive resolution.
- Resolver
- High
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and gas export terminals), regardless of whether the two countries' commitments cover the same category. A category need not cover all such infrastructure in the other country to qualify; a category limited to a defined geographic area will be sufficient. The agreement must be either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A claim by a third party, including the President of the United States, that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to such an arrangement will not qualify without such confirmation. A broader ceasefire, peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed general suspension of strikes by both countries, whether or not it names energy infrastructure or any specific category of it. It will also qualify if it otherwise includes a mutually agreed suspension of strikes that meets the requirements above. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit commitment to suspend strikes will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in strikes will not be considered an energy ceasefire agreement. Arrangements which only apply to a single facility (e.g. the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant), will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the energy ceasefire officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026. Resolution requires an official announcement from both nations or a consensus of credible reporting, explicitly excluding single-facility deals, unilateral pauses, or third-party claims without confirmation.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine reach a mutually agreed arrangement committing both countries to suspend strikes on at least one defined category or geographic area of energy infrastructure by November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Kyiv time. A broader ceasefire or peace deal qualifies if it includes a mutual general suspension of strikes. The agreement must be reached before the deadline even if it takes effect later. Arrangements covering only a single facility, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, or third-party claims without dual confirmation do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. The resolution source is official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·