Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 14?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market includes an early-resolution clause triggered by a simple announcement of resignation or removal by the deadline, even if the departure date itself takes effect far into the future.
Read the full assessment
This market includes an early-resolution clause triggered by a simple announcement of resignation or removal by the deadline, even if the departure date itself takes effect far into the future. Official government or personal statements serve as the primary source, but the rules also permit resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting, giving the resolver latitude in evaluating media reports. The end date and time are clearly specified, and the core condition for leaving office is straightforward.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Medium
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
<1%
chance▼ −0.4 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth ceases to serve as U.S. Secretary of Defense by November 14, 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period between market creation and November 14, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market also resolves immediately to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal occurs by the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Resolution is determined using official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·