Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: November 30 at 5% · first close Nov 15, 2026 · $1.3M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Pete Hegseth leaves his position as U.S. Secretary of Defense by various specific deadlines. Each market measures whether his departure or an announcement of his resignation or removal occurs on or before the specified date.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of timeline thresholds based on different target dates. Because each market checks whether Pete Hegseth leaves office or is announced to leave by that specific date, an earlier departure would cause earlier markets and all subsequent date markets to resolve Yes. Therefore, more than one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. An announcement of his resignation or removal by the deadline will also immediately trigger a Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date. If no such event or announcement occurs by the deadline, the market resolves to No.
Key dates
- November 14 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on November 14 (year not specified in rules)
- November 21 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on November 21 (year not specified in rules)
- November 30 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on November 30 (year not specified in rules)
Resolution source
Official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 5% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| November 21 | 2% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| November 14 | <1% | ±0 | Med | High |