Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
Gotcha risk
High2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules contain critical constraints that diverge from the simple title question.
Read the full assessment
The rules contain critical constraints that diverge from the simple title question. The resolution window only begins on November 17, 2025, meaning any pardon granted prior to that date would strictly resolve the market to No. In addition, the rules expand the criteria beyond a formal pardon to include commutations and reprieves. Official government announcements serve as the primary source, alongside a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump before 2027. It features a specific window starting November 17, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such action occurs within this designated timeframe. The primary resolution source is official information from the US government, though a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution source
Official information from the US government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·