Who will Trump pardon before 2027?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: Elon Musk at 12% (+3 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $635.8K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether specific individuals receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump before 2027. Each individual market evaluates clemency granted within a designated timeframe.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains distinct binary markets for different named individuals. More than one market can resolve Yes, as Donald Trump can grant pardons, commutations, or reprieves to multiple listed individuals independently during the specified period.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution source is official information from the US government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Start date: — Beginning of the qualification window for a pardon, commutation, or reprieve.
- End date: — End of the qualification window at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the US government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 12% | ▲ 3 | Med | Med | |
| Himself | 4% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 2% | ±0 | High | Med | |
| Martin Shkreli | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Nicolas Maduro | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Andrew Tate | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Eric Adams | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Steve Bannon | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Roger Ver | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Julian Assange | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Diddy | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Hunter Biden | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Young Thug | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Edward Snowden | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Matt Gaetz | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Daniel Penny | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Roger Stone | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Bob Menendez | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Joe Exotic | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Derek Chauvin | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Antoine Massey | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Elizabeth Holmes | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | — | — | Med | High | |
| Do Kwon | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Stefan Brodie | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Donald Brodie | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Jensen Huang | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ryan Salame | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| Keonne Rodriguez | — | — | Not rated | Med |