Will Gilad Erdan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.1¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.1%
$827.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks who will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules explicitly tie resolution to an individual sworn in after a parliamentary election, whether scheduled in 2026 or called early. If a new Prime Minister takes office mid-term through a coalition reshuffle or constructive vote of no confidence without a general election, this market would not resolve immediately on that event. In addition, interim or caretaker leaders are explicitly excluded, and if no qualifying leader is sworn in by December 31, 2027, the market resolves to a catch-all outcome. Official Israeli government records are the primary resolution basis, supplemented by reporting consensus if needed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gilad Erdan will be officially appointed and sworn in as the next Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or an early election. Interim or caretaker appointments do not qualify.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Gilad Erdan is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election or any early election called beforehand. The market resolves to No if a different individual is officially appointed and sworn in following that election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count toward resolution. The market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel decides the outcome, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Date legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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